Turkey Merchant Prices

This file contains hour by hour prices for merchant electricity in Turkey.  The electricity prices in Turkey have been recorded since the spring of 2009.  The files for electricity prices in Turkey and other regions combine a historic data set with spreadsheet processes that permit updating in an easy manner as possible. The turkey merchant electricity prices are expressed in USD and compared to natural gas prices as with other currencies.  In this way, you can compare Turkey prices to worldwide prices in terms of price levels and volatility.  As with other worldwide merchant electricity prices, I have provided instructions so that you can update the prices by yourself. The files for turkey prices include:

Turkey Prices.xlsm

Updating Turkey Merchant Prices by Yourself

This section provides instructions on how you can regularly update prices and keep your analysis of Turkey Prices current:

First, you can download the prices on an hour by hour basis using the link below which provides hour by hour prices in TKL. But it is a pain to download the historic prices because you cannot download the prices all at once and you cannot get a URL to download the prices.  The process to put added data into the database is shown in the video below (which is too long and has bad sound).

Next, adjust all the prices on this page to USD. This is another pain because recent prices are not included in the FRED database and it is a pain to find a database with comprehensive history. So, I found a database that has day by day historic data that you can put together using the WORKBOOKS.OPEN function.

After changing to USD, the story is completely different. As such, the case demonstrates the importance of adjusting prices to a reference currency. Once the prices are changed, you can see a close correlation to natural gas prices

I use the European natural gas prices from PINK data published by the world bank. After you make these adjustments the story completely changes. Now the prices come down over time and you can evaluate the relationship between electricity and gas prices.

After you compile the hourly prices by downloading separate files you can use the AVERAGEIF or the MATCH and INDEX you see that the prices seem pretty stable (see the video).

 

https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency/piyasalar/gop/ptf.xhtml

 

Discussion of Turkey Merchant Price History

Prices for just about every market also tell a story and represent a case study. I looked at Turkey prices a few years ago when I was working in Armenia (there is no transmission connection). Turkey prices adjusted for both the exchange rate and for changes in gas price (through converting prices to implied heat rates and spark spreads) were much higher than Europe and other places in the world. I also ran into people making investments in Turkey who were assuming prices would remain constant or even increase. The clear question was whether these prices would continue at high levels relative to gas prices, coal prices and in absolute terms. This conversion to a common currency and examination of prices in the context of gas and coal prices is similar for all of the regions presented below.

Video Describing how to Update Data for Turkey Prices

Note that the volume is low on this video and if you have headphones it may help to use them.