Using a Regression of the Price to Book Ratio and ROE to Derive Cost of Equity

This webpage demonstrates that you can use creative alternatives to the CAPM through making a regression analysis of market to book ratios and deriving the cost of capital from P/E ratios or EV/NOPAT ratios.

The set of videos is supposed to suggest practical alternatives even though regression analysis of price to book ratios is presented and statistical analysis of beta is discussed. The videos and files generally demonstrate that CAPM overstates the cost of capital. In addition, the corrected value driver formula is used to evaluate the cost of capital. The lesson includes two files that illustrate the theory of coming up with cost of capital from the P/E formula and the P/B formula and also a database to compute the cost of capital using a lot of different methods. Both the data analysis and the theory are quite advanced and not consistent with traditional methods to evaluate the cost of capital.

 

 

 

Cost of Capital Subject File Reference Video Link
Cost of Captial Database Introduction Dow 30 Companies https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOpSVBstv4o
Cost of Capital Sensitivity Analysis Using the P/E Ratio Formula Price to Earnings Analysis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5FoWknb0HM
P/E Cost of Capital and Scenario Reporter Scenario reporter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5DOUe6Wqbk
P/E ratio and Cost of Capital with Transition and Interpolation (Number 6) Interpolate and Lookup https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLVqKfvmjCM
P/B Regression Simulations for the Cost of Capital (Number 5) Price to Book https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhYlYSSWDVw
P/B Formulas and Cost of Capital Price to Book https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2NdJs8Su44
Demonstration of Problems with CAPM Beer Companies Database https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PL0zOQe-_6c
Collecting Data with Ticker Symbols Cost of Captial Database https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTskVI_VERk
Building Cost of Capital Data with Indirect Function Cost of Captial Database https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBl_pAvxhbs
Problems with Beta and Measuring Cost of Capital Renewable Stock Price https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTDjLjZo9cE
Use of Market P/E Ratio to Derive Cost of Capital Economy Wide Cost of Capital https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAolSYR1-pc
DCF Model for Deriving Cost of Capital Integrated Electricity Model https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rsxSVDbjxE
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Files Used in Advanced Valuation Concepts Lesson Set 1: Using Methods other than CAPM to Estimate the Cost of Capital

There are two general sets of files associated with the cost of capital analysis. The first set of files in the cost of capital set work through the theory of valuation and alternatives to the CAPM.

The second set of files show how the models work with real market data. The set of files and videos below include both development of spreadsheets that measure the theory and explanation of how to construct comprehensive financial ratio databases that can be automatically uploaded to evaluate cost of capital.

Deriving the cost of capital from the P/E ratio requires a lot of assumptions about long-term ROE versus cost of capital, long-term growth, inflation rates and transition periods. The P/E ratio files and videos use alternative scenario analyses to demonstrate the difficulty. The P/E Analysis file below evaluates the cost of capital with sensitivity and scenario analysis. It demonstrates how to correct the value driver formula P/E = (1-g/ROE)/(k-g) for inflation and changing returns.

This files below evaluates the price to book ratio analysis with regression analysis and shows how to develop the formula: PB = (ROE-g)/(k-g). It shows how you can use the market to book ratio to compute cost of capital and it demonstrates how a regression equation for the market to book ratio can be used to evaluate the cost of capital. If the CAPM is a biased and flawed model, bizarre attempts to adjust the cost of capital for country risk resulting in premiums as much as 11% for some countries. These CAPM derived premiums published by a man named Mr. Damoradan and frequently used have to imply that the real cost of all sorts of products ranging from houses to electricity can be as much as double for so-called risky countries.

 

The database evaluates historic market to book ratios relative to projected return on equity to evaluate cost of capital. In addition PE ratios and published growth estimates are used along with assumed transition rates to back into the cost of capital. The CAPM is also computed along with the dividend discount model. The next set of videos explain the theory behind using the market to book ratio and the P/E ratio using simulation and sensitivity analysis. The final set of videos in the set explain details of how to build the data base.