The first step in the lesson set is evaluating solar resource. The files first set of files involve putting solar data together in a file. The basis for computing P99 etc is the NREL website and download the zipped file for a location (sorry that this is only U.S. data). The first set are files work with detailed raw data from NREL that has hourly data from 1991-2010. If you try this, go to a file and then run the
Variation in the Production of Actual Plants
As with wind and solar, I have put together the database of actual plants in order to evaluate the variation in production from plants. This data comes from the a US EIA database that tracks month by month generation (I understand that S&P tracks the data and charges you something like 50K USD). In another page I explain in detail how you can update the database. The hydro database includes three pages — one for the data from EIA and two other pages that put together analysis for individual plants. As with any other excel stuff, I mainly use INDEX, MATCH and SUMIF to make all of the analysis. You can download the database by clicking on the button below. Below the button I have put a couple of screenshots that illustrate the summary analysis and the analysis for a single project.
These files are on the resource library. Get the library by e-mailing edwardbodmer@gmail.com
Hydro Resource Analysis Completed Example.xlsm
Raw Data from USGS.xlsx
Exercise 10 – Hydro Run of River Analysis.xls
Exercise 11 – Hydro Analysis.xls
Graphs of Generation and Release Data.xlsm
Hydro Analysis
Butan Final.xlsm
Completed Example.xlsm
Michigan UP.xlsx
Videos associated with Lesson Set 1: Hydro Resource Analysis
| Subject | Excel File | Video Link | Chapter Reference | Page Reference | ||||||
| Finding Water Flow Data | Hydro Water Flow | |||||||||
| Computing Hydro Generation from Water Flow | USGS Data base | |||||||||
| Computing P90, P75, P50 etc. from Water Flow | P90, P95, etc. | |||||||||
| Using EIA 923 to Study Hydro Variation | Net Yield Analysis | |||||||||
| Peak Shaving for Storage Hydro | Peak Shaving Exercise | |||||||||
| Timing in Hydro Project Finance Model | Timing in Hydro Model | |||||||||
| Operating Analysis in Hydro Model | Hydro Operations Analysis | |||||||||
| Working Capital In Hydro Model | Hydro Working Capital | |||||||||
| Financial Related Inputs and Financial Model Structure | Hydro Financing Inputs | |||||||||
| Re-Financing in Hydro Model | Hydro Financing Inputs | |||||||||
| Financing Equations | Hydro Financing Equations | |||||||||
| Cash Flow Equations | Hydro Cash Flow Equations | |||||||||
| Presentation of Annual Data and Debt Cash Flow | ||||||||||
| Preparing Balance Sheet and Audit Checks | ||||||||||
| Scenario Analysis | ||||||||||
| Tornado Analysis | ||||||||||
| Working with EIA 923 Data Base | ||||||||||
| … | …………………………………………………………………………… | … | …………………………………………………………… | … | ………………………………………………………………………………………. | … | ……………………………………. | … | ………………………………… |
Completed Example.xlsm
Equilibrium.xlsx
Hydro Simulation Example.xlsm
Generation and Release Data.xlsm
This webpage explains how to evaluate the capacity factor and the production from hydro plants. The resource can be computed from the electricity power equation that multiplies the water flow by the head by the gravity constant and by the efficiency.As with the solar and wind pages, the hydro page begins with hydro resource analysis. Hydro projects can have higher volatility than other projects, but the flows experience mean reversion. Hydro projects also have longer lives than other projects meaning that re-financing can be an important issue. In the resource analysis on this page you are guided through a hypothetical run of the river plant that applies flow rate data. You apply the hydro power data where kW produced is a function of the flow rate, the head, the gravity coefficient and the efficiency of the plant. After working through the resource analysis, a financial exercise is included that demonstrates the importance of re-financing and measuring the cost of capital. In addition there is a discussion of simulating storage hydro for systems that have reservoirs.
Hydro Resource Analysis
Power (kW)=Flow Rate (m/s) x Head (m) x Gravitational Constant (9.8 m/sec^2) x Efficiency