Sea Port Models

This page has a few examples of sea port and shipping financial models.  Sea port models have a very long life and most have some kind of history.  As such they could be classified as corporate models.  But there can be individual concessions for berths and associated networks with roads and railways.  Sea ports also have risks of sudden overcapacity.  The danger is that a neighbouring port increases capacity and volumes and/or margins are reduced at the port you are financing.

I am putting together more cases for sea ports.  For now I have included a couple of files below for a case in Karachi Pakistan where there are two ports and each port has been increasing capacity.  The first document is a report on sea ports.

Report on Analysis of Port


The file you can download below is something that I am not very proud of.  In particular, the graphs are badly organised.  But it does illustrate some of the modelling challenges of a port and in particular application of corporate modelling and project modelling principles.


Financial Model of Port with Alternative Scenarios for Growth in Shipments and Danger of Surplus Capacity

Ship Models

Shipping models are a close cousin of many different project finance models.  The shipping industry has gone throguh a classic case of over capacity after 2008 when high returns prompted increases in construction.  Due to the long-life of ships, the time it has taken to resolve the over-capacity situation is long for certain types of vessels.  An example of a model for shipping analysis with dry-dock days and different pricing scenarios is presented below.

Ship Project Finance Model with Analysis of Dry Dock Days and Margins

Write-ups of Port Analysis

I used to collect reports made by the rating agencies and download them.  You can now do a simple search and find reports that have general discussions about risks.  One of the things that is helpful in these reports is the publishing of financial ratios (DSCR’s, LLCR’s, PLCR’s


Other Port Models


Example of Project Finance Model for A Port with Detailed Projections for Traffic and Market Share